An assessment of the feasibility of using administrative data in producing mid-year population estimates for South Africa

Mbongeni Hlabano, University of Cape Town

The production of mid-year population estimates is an important undertaking which informs various stakeholders in policy formation and decision making. Statistics South Africa (Stats SA) assume the function of producing and publishing mid-year estimates of the population in South Africa. Stats SA produce their mid-year estimates using DemProj, population projection software which is part of the SPECTRUM suite of policy models developed by the Futures Institute. However, Stats SA do not publish full details of their adaptation of Demproj when producing their mid-year estimates as they regard this as proprietary. Concerns have been raised about the accuracy of their mid-year estimates in terms of age distribution, particularly for ages below 40 last birthday in 2011 (e.g. Dorrington 2013). The paper assesses the feasibility of using data from vital registration, with adjustments for completeness, to produce an alternative set of mid-year estimates for South Africa