Sub-Saharan migration to Europe in times of restriction: an empirical test of substitution effects

Cris Beauchemin, Institut National d'Études Démographiques (INED)
Marie-Laurence Flahaux, University of Oxford
Bruno D. Schoumaker, Université Catholique de Louvain

Studies on the effects of migration policies are usually hampered by a lack of data related both to migration policies and to migration itself. We analyze trends in policies and migration focusing on flows between Sub-Saharan Africa and Europe since the mid-1970s. Using the data of both the DEMIG and MAFE project, we compare flows and policies of 3 African and 6 destination countries (Democratic Republic of Congo, Ghana and Senegal on one hand; and Belgium, France, Italy, Spain, the Netherlands, and the UK on the other hand). Testing the ‘substitution effects’ of restrictive migration policies, we show that they do not result in less out-migration, but rather end up with more irregular migration and less returns. It does not mean that migration policies completely fail, but suggests that other determinants are at play, such as social networks, work opportunities in destination areas or economic and political context at origin.