Dynamics of marriage and infertility in South Africa: an analysis of census data

Michel Garenne, Institut Pasteur

The study presents an analysis of long-term trends in celibacy and infertility in South Africa using four censuses. Terminal celibacy was defined as not being married, widowed or divorced. Terminal infertility was defined as not having had any live birth. Results show complex dynamics of both infertility and celibacy. Infertility first declined for cohorts born before 1940 then increased. Celibacy first declined for cohorts born before 1920, then increased. All dynamics varied by population group, by ethnic group, area of residence, province of residence, and level of education. A multivariate analysis indicated that lack of marriage was the most important factor of infertility, explaining about half of cases. Dynamics of marriage and infertility are discussed in light of the complex population history of the country in the 20th century. Cultural factors appear critical for explaining levels and trends of celibacy and infertility, far above any socio-economic factor.