Primary infertility in African censuses: potential and limits of IPUMS samples

Michel Garenne, Institut Pasteur

The study presents an analysis of infertility from African censuses available in the IPUMS-international data base. Infertility (childlessness) was defined as no live birth at the end of the reproductive period. Six countries with at least three censuses were selected: Kenya, Malawi, South Africa, Zambia, Mali and Burkina-Faso. In the last three countries, data were found to be inconsistent, and therefore discarded. The proportion of infertile women born between 1940 and 1960 ranged from 3.8% in Kenya, 3.9% in Malawi to 7.3% in South Africa. In all three countries infertility was declining for cohorts born between 1900 and 1950. In South Africa, prevalence of infertility was rising significantly for cohorts born between 1950 and 1970. Comparison with DHS surveys conducted in the same countries showed lower value of terminal infertility for the same cohorts. Reasons for discrepancies between census and survey data are further explored