The prospects for an imminent demographic dividend in Africa: the case for cautious optimism

Alaka Malwade Basu, Cornell University
Kaushik Basu, World Bank Group

This paper looks at the prospects for a demographic dividend in Africa. We suggest that there are underlying features of Africa today which might hasten fertility decline. These have to do with some of the preconditions under which fertility fell in other parts of the world—economic development, social modernization, mortality decline and a rise in ‘natural’ fertility—but also include the fact that the world today is again proactively increasing investments in voluntary family planning. All this is conducive to faster fertility decline than in the past and with the right policies could allow the region to exploit this demographic window of opportunity. We also comment on some of the economic implications of a demographic dividend in Africa, including the fact that when it occurs, the economic impact of a relatively larger labour force may be enhanced because of the historical and cultural acceptance of women in the labour force.