Trends in voting pattern in South Africa 2003-2013

Mosidi Nhlapo, Statistics South Africa
Barbara A. Anderson, University of Michigan
John H. Romani, University of Michigan
Marie Wentzel, Human Sciences Research Council of South Africa (HSRC)

This paper analyses voting preferences of young South Africans (age 18-35) in comparison to older South Africans, based on data from the South African Social Attitudes Surveys (SASAS) 2003-2013. Voting preferences are strongly related to population group, even after aspects of socio-economic status have been taken into account. In 2004, Africans were more likely to vote than non-Africans. In 2013, race did not matter for voting. However, young non-Africans are significantly more likely to vote for the ANC than older non-Africans and young Africans are somewhat more likely to vote for the DA than older Africans. By 2012, tertiary-educated Africans, both younger and older, were less likely to support the ANC than less educated Africans, while older tertiary-educated Africans were more likely than less educated older Africans to support the DA. In the 2013 SASAS, 9% of young voting-age Africans and 6% of older Africans supported the EFF.