Trends in fertility change by socioeconomic status in Africa: the case of East and Central African countries

Alfred Otieno Agwanda, University of Nairobi
Anne Khasakhala, University of Nairobi
George O. Odwe, University of Nairobi
Hilbert Omamo, University of Nairobi

Past studies point to the fact that future pace and consequences of African fertility transitions is expected to hinge in part on patterns of reproductive heterogeneity – the extent of the uneven distribution of births across population subgroups. This paper examines patterns of pace of fertility decline and trends in reproductive heterogeneity using DHS conducted since 1993. We use coefficient of variation squared (CV2) given by; CV2 = S wj (rj - 1)2 where wj is relative size of groups and rj the ratio of the group’s TFR to the national TFR. We decompose historical trends in changes in reproductive heterogeneity into components resulting from changing fertility differentials and from changes in the group composition. These are then used to examine patterns of change.