Fertility, ethnicity, education, and the demographic dividend in the Democratic Republic of the Congo

David Shapiro, Pennsylvania State University
Basile Tambashe, University of Kinshasa

In the mid-1950s, a massive survey in the Democratic Republic of the Congo (DRC) revealed substantial fertility differentials among the country’s ethnic groups. Over the succeeding decades, women -- previously predominantly illiterate -- increasingly went to school, especially in Kinshasa, the capital. In the city, women’s increased educational attainment was associated with lower fertility, particularly for women who at least reached the secondary schooling level. At the same time, fertility differences by ethnic group have diminished over time in the city. This paper examines fertility differences by education and by ethnicity in the country as a whole, distinguishing Kinshasa from other urban places and from rural areas. We seek to determine if the increased importance for fertility of education and reduced importance for fertility of ethnicity witnessed in Kinshasa is also apparent for the country as a whole. In addition, we explore the prospects for a demographic dividend in the DRC.