Does estimated completeness of death registration in South Africa provide evidence of overestimation of population size from the 2011 South African Population Census?

Eric O. Udjo, University of South Africa

Information about the size of the population is traditionally obtained from censuses. Accuracy of census figures can be in doubt. Vital registration has various uses but has limited use in sub-Saharan Africa due to incomplete coverage. Estimates of completeness of death registration often focus on the numerator but there could be errors in the denominator. If that were the case, would give inaccurate impression of the level of completeness. It appears therefore that estimating “completeness” of death registration could provide indications of the “accuracy” of official population size estimates. This study seeks to answer the question: Does estimated completeness of death registration in South Africa provide evidence of overestimation of population size? The results of the analysis of the 2001 and 2011 censuses, causes of death registrations in 2001 and 2011 suggest exaggeration of the size of South Africa’s population as provided by the official estimates from the 2011 census.