Urbanization and fertility in developing world: is the relationship causal or a mere association? Evidence from 174 Demographic Health Surveys (1990-2011)

Zacharie Tsala Dimbuene, Université de Kinshasa and Statistics Canada
Blaise Luamba Maketama, University of Kinshasa

Previous research found lower fertility levels in urban areas compared with rural areas. However, the answered question remained whether this relationship is a mere association or causal, especially due to the cross-sectional nature of data used in previous studies. This paper examines the relationship between urban place of residence and fertility levels, measured as the number of children ever born (CEB), using 174 Demographic Health Surveys from developing countries and matching techniques to account for the heterogeneity between rural and urban areas. Overall, we found a negative and significant effect of urbanization on fertility. Additionally, we examined the trends of the effect of urbanization on fertility and we found that it varies over time. Thee variations are categorized as “enhancement effect”, “constancy effect”, or “diminishing effect” depending upon the fact that the observed effect of urbanization from previous was lower, almost equal, higher than the actual period.