Modeling and projection of HIV/AIDS epidemics in Ethiopia using ARIMA

Demissew Tsigemelak, University of Nairobi

Ethiopia is one of the Sub-Saharan countries which are mostly affected by the HIV pandemic with a prevalence of 1.5% among adults and it is one of the top 22 countries with the highest number of pregnant women living with HIV/AIDS. This study was conducted with objective of formulating a model to determine the trend, prevalence and projecting HIV/AIDS epidemics in Ethiopia. Data from 1990 to 2013 were obtained from UNAIDS and Ministry of Health bulletin in Ethiopia. The data was analyzed using Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average (ARIMA) time series analysis model and the ARIMA (2,3,2) appeared to be providing the best fit for the observed data. The trend revealed that the HIV/AIDS prevalence was increasing in alarming rate from approximately mid 1990s and reached its climax within the years 2002 to 2004 and decreased onward. The prediction from the data showed that the prevalence of HIV/AIDS would decrease in Ethiopia for the next 5 years.