Forever young? The demographic transition in Southern Africa and its socio-economic implications

Lucilla Maria Bruni, World Bank Group
Jamele Rigolini, World Bank Group
Michele Gragnolati, World Bank Group
Sara Troiano, World Bank Group

Southern Africa is at a different demographic stage than the rest of Sub-Saharan Africa, with significantly lower fertility and mortality rates. Between now and 2050 this region will experience important demographic changes that will impact social spending and economic activity, altering the composition of the workforce as well as the consumption and savings profile of the population. The predictability of the specific effects of demographic change is challenged by factors specific to the region, such as severe socio-economic inequality, the HIV/AIDS pandemic, and high structural unemployment, among others. This article presents empirical evidence derived using a variety of methodologies (General Equilibrium Modelling, National Transfers Account, and econometric and micro-simulation analysis) from Botswana, Lesotho, Namibia, South Africa and Swaziland, to illustrate the particular demographic dynamics, their likely effects on the economy, and discusses the short to medium term policies to foster a conducive environment to reaping the benefits of demographic change.