Has fertility been declining in Mozambique? An analysis based on the proximate determinants framework

Carlos Arnaldo, Universidade Eduardo Mondlane

This paper uses the 1997, 2003 and 2011 Demographic and Health Surveys to examine the recent trends in fertility and its proximate determinants in Mozambique. Stover’s (1998) modified version of Bongaarts proximate determinants model and decomposition methods ware used to determine the contribution of each of the proximate determinants to the change in fertility over the period of 1997 to 2011. The data show that there is no clear evidence of fertility decline in Mozambique, except in urban areas and in southern region. Postpartum infecunability is by far the most fertility-inhibiting effect and has not changed in recent years. Many contextual factors have contributed to fertility behavior in Mozambique: long periods of political instability with impact on education and health sectors, economic and social policies adopted after the independence of the country in 1975.

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Presented in Session 47: Case Studies of Stalled Fertility Transitions