“Let’s live together first”: a longitudinal investigation into whether cohabitation is a precursor to marriage among young South Africans

Nicole De Wet, University of the Witwatersrand
Jeremy Gumbo, University of the Witwatersrand

Background: Conventional and traditional pathways to adulthood in developing countries are being contested and abandoned with new practices being adopted. In developed countries, the practice of cohabitation instead of marriage is practiced. Similar to the spread of technology and health innovations to developing countries, the idea of cohabitation as a preference over marriage has also spread. In South Africa, marriage rates had decreased by 4% from 2003 to 2010.This study seeks to investigate whether cohabiting is a predictor of marriage later on among young South Africans. Methods: Longitudinal study using Cape Area Panel Study data. The study sample are youth in cohabiting relationships in 2002 and followed up to 2006. Aside from descriptive statistics, logistic regression is used to establish the relationship. Results: While an older age and primary education seems to predict greater odds of cohabiting and marriage, it appears that females have a better chance of cohabiting than getting married.