Has Uganda experienced any stalled fertility transition? Reflecting on the last four decades (1973-2011)

Allen Kabagenyi, Makerere University
Alice Reid, University of Cambridge
Gideon Rutaremwa, United Nations Economic Commission for Africa (UNECA)
Lynn M. Atuyambe, Makerere University
James Ntozi, Makerere University

Fertility decline particularly in sub-Saharan Africa has been debated over the years with scholars pointing to divergent views. Explanations for possible causes of fertility stall have been highlighted however country specific information on presumed stages of fertility transition lacking. We examined whether Uganda has experienced stalling fertility and the level of fertility transition. Using individual schedules of five DHS data, information on women’s age and births of their children is selected, later examined for misreporting and age heaping. Reconstruction of fertility rates for a 15year period of each respective survey is generated. Regression models are fitted and fertility trends are constructed over the 38year period examining for a fertility stall. The findings suggest no fertility stall but demonstrate an onset of fertility transition where the levels continue declining consistently to lower levels. The need to harness the demographic dividend particularly in a high fertility country like Uganda highlighted