Food security and the inclusion of family planning within social safety net programs: a present value costing analysis in two landlocked countries

Reid Hamel, University of California, Berkeley

Cash transfer programs for the poor have expanded rapidly in the past decade and have become a powerful political tool to combat food insecurity. This project examines nascent safety net programs in two food insecure, landlocked countries with medium and high levels of population growth: Tajikistan and Niger. It estimates the cumulative present discount value of public budgetary commitments to cash transfers over the medium term under different population growth trajectories and calculates cost savings associated with reduced fertility. It then estimates the family planning program investments required to achieve slower growth. The work demonstrates that the medium-term cost savings to national safety net programs is more than adequate to cover contraceptive commodity needs in each country. Surplus savings could be reinvested in the safety net programs to increase benefit levels, to expand coverage, or both. Illustrative expansion levels are discussed, along with discount rate sensitivity and other methodological assumptions.