Fertility in Lesotho: analysis of change over time based on parity-dependent measures and birth intervals

Ntsoaki Mapetla, National University of Lesotho
Tom A. Moultrie, University of Cape Town

The Lesotho Population Census of 1996 provided first evidence of a decline in fertility following high and stable fertility for over two decades. However, detailed studies of the nature of the fertility transition in Lesotho remain limited. The paper seeks to document the family formation patterns underlying the fertility transition in Lesotho through an assessment of changes over time in parity progression and birth intervals. Parity progression ratios are derived from census fertility data using a method that was developed by Brass (1985). Another set of projected parity progression ratios is derived from LDHS birth history data using a truncated pair-wise comparison procedure. The assessment of median birth intervals is done using an approach proposed by Aoun (1989). Assessment of both parity progression measures and median birth intervals suggest that declining parity progression across all ages and parities and lengthening median birth intervals could be the key factors leading to fertility decline in Lesotho.