Leaders and lagers: understanding the context of progress towards MDG 4 in Africa

Yohannes Kinfu, University of Canberra
Tom Achoki, University of Washington

Globally, child mortality decreased, on average, by 2·6% per year from 1970 to 1985, then slowed down until the late 1990s, began to accelerate, and since the second half of 2000s, have fallen by an average of 3·6% per year. On the basis of rates of change observed from 1990 to 2013, only 27 of 138 developing countries are expected to achieve the MDG 4 target, and in Africa only five will belong to this category. However, with global attention focused on meeting the target itself, the success stories of many more countries in the region that have made huge strides in the past two decades, even if the changes they registered fall short of the level expected for meeting target, remain far from fully investigated. The paper investigates the factors distinguishing these groups from their peers where progress on child mortality has been limited, and draw lesson for SDGs.