Elusive prospects for a demographic dividend in Southern Africa

Tom A. Moultrie, University of Cape Town

The idea of a demographic dividend, and the argument by some commentators that such a dividend is a foregone conclusion in Southern Africa is explored in this paper. Data from the 2012 World Population Prospects, integrated with the original work on human capital dynamics produced at IIASA by KC and Lutz, are used to investigate both the likely demographic change in the region, and associated changes in human capital distributions. The conclusion is that for four of the five countries (i.e. other than South Africa), the demographic window will open in over a decade's time, but that slow change in the rate of demographic change and human capital formation will greatly attenuate the dividend. In the case of South Africa, the demographic window is already open, suggesting that the opportunity to capture a dividend is already being lost.