Demographic transition and the demographic dividend – emerging trends in selected countries in Africa

Frank Otchere, University of North Carolina at Chapel Hill

Countries in Africa are currently at different stages as far as the demographic transition is concerned. Most countries in Africa currently have a youth bulge and comparatively smaller aged population, thus providing the necessary requirement for countries to tap the potential of a demographic dividend. However, the actual realization of the dividend requires the right socio-economic development policy framework, anchored on sound integration of demographic variables into development planning. This paper examines the demographic and economic profile of 20 countries in Africa since 2000 and finds that a unit decrease in dependency ratio is associated with a 2 percentage point increase in the human development index. Countries with higher levels of education, favourable entreprenural index and lower levels of corruption have appear to have benefited the most. Projections however show that rapidly aging populations and un/under-employment are credible threats to further gains from the demographic transition..