Indirect estimation of fertility in India and major states: an application of reverse survival methods

Akash Kumar, International Institute for Population Sciences (IIPS)

There have been profound changes in fertility rates in India in past three to four decades. This paper contributes to different picture of fertility transition over a time periods. The earliest such method is the Brass P/F method, first set out by Brass (1964). Almost all methods of estimating fertility indirectly have their origins in the P/F ratio method. The main purpose of this study was to demonstrate the time series of total fertility rate over a different time periods. The estimates based on Reverse Survival Methods are within acceptable limits and comparable with estimates of other estimation procedure and surveys. Arising from finding, it is clear that for India as whole fertility rate remained more or less unchanged between recent last two decades and continue to decline thereafter. Even though this study has not recognized an increase the findings indicate that the rate of fertility decline was somewhat reduced.