Where do they all come from? Where do they all belong? Searching for Eleanor Rigby in the 2011 census data on migration

Tom A. Moultrie, University of Cape Town
Rob Dorrington, University of Cape Town

This paper assesses the implied recent trends in internal and international migration in South Africa. In terms of internal migration, we apply the TODA model popularised by Raymer, Little and Rogers, estimating migration streams between the provinces. These will be compared with the matrices used in the production of mid-year estimates, work on migration from previous censuses and the Community Survey as well as consistency with the change in age distribution of the population between censuses. Internationally, we examine both the countries of origin of international migrants, as well as the duration of their residence in South Africa. We raise concerns about the editing, particularly, of the country of origin data in the 10 per cent sample. The implications of both migration patterns for long-term population projections of the country, or of its provinces are discussed.