Demography is not destiny: probabilistic scenarios of future fertility change in sub-Saharan Africa

Patrick Gerland, United Nations Population Division
Ann E. Biddlecom, United Nations Population Division
Vladimira Kantorova, United Nations Population Division
Stephen M. Kisambira, United Nations Population Division
Thomas Spoorenberg, United Nations Population Division
Cheryl C. Sawyer, United Nations Population Division
Lina Bassarsky, United Nations Population Division
François Pelletier, United Nations Population Division
Petra Nahmias, United Nations Population Division

This paper reviews recent fertility declines within sub-Saharan Africa and examines the implications of different fertility decline patterns for future fertility and population projections in the region. We begin with a direct acknowledgement of the variation in fertility across countries in sub-Saharan Africa, drawing attention to the timing of the onset of fertility decline and the estimated pace of fertility decline. We then analyze fertility declines among countries worldwide that are advanced in (or have completed) their first fertility transition and identify distinct, systematic patterns. These different fertility decline patterns are then used to construct probabilistic fertility and population projections for sub-Saharan African countries. We compare them to projections based on the fertility decline experiences of all countries worldwide. The simulations are based on the same statistical models that are used to generate probabilistic projections for the United Nations World Population Prospects.