Spatial analysis of child mortality in South Africa in relation to poverty and inequality: evidence from the 2011 census

Samuel A. Zewdie, University of Cape Town
Vissého D. Adjiwanou, University of Cape Town

The aim of this research is to derive estimates of child mortality (CM) rates for the local municipalities South Africa using the 2011 census. The estimation is achieved through the use of direct synthetic cohort methods with Bayesian spatial smoothing. The smoothing process incorporates information from neighbouring municipalities by controlling the effects of women’s education and HIV. It is found that there are significant spatial differentials of CM in the country, where under-five mortality rate ranging from 24 in the City of Cape Town to 109 in uPhongolo. In evaluating the spatial differentials in CM with the levels of poverty and inequality, it is shown that CM is higher in poorer and more unequal areas and vice-versa, although there are some areas where inverse relationship is observed. The findings of this study may help the government make more focused decisions in the fight for the reduction of CM in the country.