Age migration schedules in Kenya: analysis of out migration propensity at sub national levels

Victor Awuor, University of Nairobi
Alfred Otieno Agwanda, University of Nairobi
George Odipo, University of Nairobi

This study was motivated by two research questions: do age profiles of migrants in Kenya exhibit regularities as captured by the model migration schedule? Can summary measures and parameter estimates of the model migration schedules be graduated from observed Kenyan migration data for comparative analysis? The study adopted the 7- parameter standard schedule, which comprises of three components: a constant, a negative exponential curve representing the pre-labor force ages, and a double exponential (unimodal) curve representing the labor force ages. The Model Migration Schedule was fitted in Microsoft Excel workbook in four steps using data from Kenya Population and Housing Census, 2009. The results indicate that regional migration schedules in Kenya are slightly high during infancy, and become extremely low during the ages of primary and secondary education, but sharply rise reaching the highest peak between the ages of 14 and 24, and gradually decline thereafter.