Trends in age at marriage and fertility transition in Africa: what connections? Tendances de l’âge au mariage et transition de la fécondité en Afrique

Véronique Hertrich, Institut National d'Études Démographiques (INED)

We examine the connections between nuptiality trends and the onset of fertility transition, following a systematic and comparative analysis of long terms trends (1960-2014, 55 countries) in women’s age at union and fertility. We use a panafrican database on nuptiality (INED, 490 censuses and surveys) and the UN-WPP fertility database. Three main findings are highlighted. First, there is no experience of fertility decline in a national context of early marriage (median below 18years). Second, in most of the countries, a nuptiality transition (increase in age at marriage) preceded the onset of fertility decline. Finally, there is no one but several patterns of connection between nuptiality and fertility trends. The expected pattern (decline in fertility with increasing age at marriage) is observed in North and Southern Africa while in the other regions a two-stage and counter-intuitive pattern prevails (increase in age at marriage is first associated with a fertility increase).