Undercounting controversies in South African censuses

Jeremy Gumbo, University of the Witwatersrand
Clifford O. Odimegwu, University of the Witwatersrand

South Africa’s last three censuses have been controversial due to high undercounting. The accuracy of Post Enumeration Survey, undercount estimates and adjusted counts derived were heavily contested. Within this discourse, our study investigated which counts between adjusted and unadjusted were better estimates of South Africa’s actual population. Data were obtained from the country’s last three censuses, Mortpark population projections, and Agincourt Health and Demographic Surveillance Site. We compared census counts against respective counts from the outlined data sources. We found that adjusted counts were better estimates of the country’s actual population relative to unadjusted counts. This indicates accuracy of Post Enumeration Survey, its undercount estimates and adjusted counts