HIV and socioeconomic characteristics among women in East Africa: who are the most-at-risk of being HIV-positive?

Jacques B. O. Emina, Université de Kinshasa

Though global HIV/ AIDS incidence is declining, HIV/AIDS remains the leading cause of death in women of reproductive age in sub-Sahara Africa, and might prevent the production of the demographic dividend. This paper applies Chi-square Automatic Interaction Detector and Logistic Generalized Estimating Equations models to the 2009-2014 Demographic and Health Survey data conducted in seven Eastern Africa countries (Kenya, Malawi, Mozambique, Tanzania, Uganda, Zambia and Zimbabwe) to examine the predictors, and identifying the most-at-risk of HIV sero-positivity in the region. Overall, marital status is the best predictor of HIV prevalence in the seven countries. The probability of being HIV-positive is higher for widows and divorced. Unlike marital status, the importance of the other significant determinants varies by countries. These findings suggest in-depth and dispassionate discussions on the legalization of commercial sexual work and polygamy in the region. Furthermore, the study provides reliable information for targeted country specific HIV interventions.