Modeling the progression of HIV infection using longitudinally measured CD4 count for HIV positive patients following highly active antiretroviral therapy

Taye Abuhay, Jimma University
Wondosen Kassahun, Jimma University
Tadele Akeba, Jimma University

ABSTRACT Human Immunodeficiency Virus (HIV) causes Acquired Immune-Deficiency Syndrome (AIDS), a condition in which the immune system begins to decline, exposing infected individuals to life- threatening opportunistic infections. Though, cure or vaccine for HIV or AIDS does not currently exist, great strides have been made in Highly Active Anti-Retroviral therapy (HAART) which effectively lowers the concentration of the virus in the body by increasing the immune system of the body (CD4+ T-cells). The main objectives of the study was to Model the progression of HIV infection using longitudinally measured CD4 count for HIV positive patients attending HAART. A longitudinal retrospective based study was conducted on 1504 patients from January 2006-December 2011 . This study found that, On average CD4 count increased in quadratic pattern over time and progression of CD4 count depends on patient’s baseline demographic and clinical characteristics. Moreover, GLMM fits the data better than GEE with small disturbance.