Grappling with the denominator in the Western Cape Province

Nesbert Zinyakatira, Western Cape Department of Health and University of Cape Town
Juliet Evans, Western Cape Department of Health

Population projections are solely based on censuses and surveys, with various assumptions incorporated in the projections on the current and future trends of mortality, fertility and migration. Population projections are an important input to policy making at the local, provincial and national levels. Thus the principal aim by organisations and demographers responsible for their derivation should be to produce the most accurate projection estimates possible. Despite the completion of the three national censuses including the recent 2011 census, there is still uncertainty in the population estimates in the country, particularly at sub-national level. This paper reviews the different estimates available in the Western Cape Province. A comparison of the available projected population estimates of the Western Cape at provincial and sub-provincial level are made from the various sources. The review concludes that the population projections from the various sources, even from the same source, are inconsistent with each other.